NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring WKU HOU
Points 58.2 85.3
Total Points   143.5
Points From 2-Pointers 26.4 41.0
Points From 3-Pointers 16.8 28.8
Points From Free Throws 15.0 15.5
Shooting WKU HOU
Field Goals Made 18.8 30.1
Field Goals Attempted 53.3 64.2
Field Goal % 35.3% 46.8%
2 Pointers Made 13.2 20.5
2 Pointers Attempted 34.1 37.7
2 Point Shooting % 38.8% 54.3%
3 Pointers Made 5.6 9.6
3 Pointers Attempted 19.3 26.5
3 Point Shooting % 29.0% 36.3%
Free Throws Made 15.0 15.5
Free Throws Attempted 20.7 21.5
Free Throw % 72.7% 71.9%
Ball Control WKU HOU
Rebounds 33.6 40.8
Rebounds - Defensive 24.8 28.0
Rebounds - Offensive 8.8 12.8
Turnovers 16.3 7.8
Blocked Shots 2.0 7.6
Steals 4.6 9.6
Fouls 15.6 16.3

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats WKU HOU
Total Possessions 72.7
Effective Scoring Chances 65.2 77.7
% of Possessions with WKU HOU
2 Point Attempt 40.3% 43.7%
3 Point Attempt 22.8% 30.7%
Player Fouled 22.4% 21.5%
Turnover 22.4% 10.7%
Opponent Steal 13.2% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken WKU HOU
Shot Blocked 12.0% 3.9%
Offensive Rebound 23.9% 34.0%