NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring VT MIA
Points 77.0 73.0
Total Points   150.0
Points From 2-Pointers 33.2 39.2
Points From 3-Pointers 32.2 23.7
Points From Free Throws 11.6 10.1
Shooting VT MIA
Field Goals Made 27.3 27.5
Field Goals Attempted 60.0 59.4
Field Goal % 45.6% 46.3%
2 Pointers Made 16.6 19.6
2 Pointers Attempted 29.2 37.1
2 Point Shooting % 56.8% 52.9%
3 Pointers Made 10.7 7.9
3 Pointers Attempted 30.7 22.3
3 Point Shooting % 34.9% 35.4%
Free Throws Made 11.6 10.1
Free Throws Attempted 14.5 14.1
Free Throw % 79.8% 71.6%
Ball Control VT MIA
Rebounds 33.6 34.6
Rebounds - Defensive 25.5 26.0
Rebounds - Offensive 8.1 8.6
Turnovers 9.8 10.8
Blocked Shots 2.5 2.6
Steals 5.7 6.4
Fouls 12.7 12.2

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats VT MIA
Total Possessions 70.5
Effective Scoring Chances 68.8 68.3
% of Possessions with VT MIA
2 Point Attempt 36.7% 46.3%
3 Point Attempt 38.6% 27.9%
Player Fouled 17.3% 18.0%
Turnover 13.8% 15.3%
Opponent Steal 9.1% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken VT MIA
Shot Blocked 4.4% 4.2%
Offensive Rebound 23.8% 25.2%