NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring VT VILL
Points 69.9 70.6
Total Points   140.4
Points From 2-Pointers 31.2 33.3
Points From 3-Pointers 27.1 25.1
Points From Free Throws 11.6 12.1
Shooting VT VILL
Field Goals Made 24.6 25.0
Field Goals Attempted 56.0 55.2
Field Goal % 44.0% 45.3%
2 Pointers Made 15.6 16.6
2 Pointers Attempted 28.8 30.3
2 Point Shooting % 54.1% 54.9%
3 Pointers Made 9.0 8.4
3 Pointers Attempted 27.2 24.9
3 Point Shooting % 33.2% 33.6%
Free Throws Made 11.6 12.1
Free Throws Attempted 14.5 15.2
Free Throw % 79.8% 79.7%
Ball Control VT VILL
Rebounds 31.3 33.2
Rebounds - Defensive 25.3 26.8
Rebounds - Offensive 6.0 6.4
Turnovers 8.7 9.4
Blocked Shots 2.7 2.2
Steals 4.8 5.1
Fouls 12.8 14.4

Playing Style Advantage: Villanova

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats VT VILL
Total Possessions 67.3
Effective Scoring Chances 64.6 64.3
% of Possessions with VT VILL
2 Point Attempt 38.8% 40.6%
3 Point Attempt 36.6% 33.3%
Player Fouled 21.4% 19.0%
Turnover 13.0% 14.0%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 7.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken VT VILL
Shot Blocked 4.1% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 18.4% 20.2%