NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring IND PUR
Points 66.1 79.4
Total Points   145.5
Points From 2-Pointers 41.7 36.4
Points From 3-Pointers 15.4 25.7
Points From Free Throws 9.0 17.3
Shooting IND PUR
Field Goals Made 26.0 26.7
Field Goals Attempted 60.2 59.7
Field Goal % 43.2% 44.8%
2 Pointers Made 20.8 18.2
2 Pointers Attempted 42.7 37.1
2 Point Shooting % 48.8% 49.0%
3 Pointers Made 5.1 8.6
3 Pointers Attempted 17.5 22.6
3 Point Shooting % 29.5% 37.9%
Free Throws Made 9.0 17.3
Free Throws Attempted 13.6 23.8
Free Throw % 65.9% 73.0%
Ball Control IND PUR
Rebounds 30.9 42.3
Rebounds - Defensive 23.2 28.9
Rebounds - Offensive 7.7 13.4
Turnovers 9.3 8.7
Blocked Shots 2.6 2.9
Steals 4.5 6.1
Fouls 16.9 12.9

Playing Style Advantage: Purdue

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IND PUR
Total Possessions 69.9
Effective Scoring Chances 68.3 74.6
% of Possessions with IND PUR
2 Point Attempt 54.2% 44.1%
3 Point Attempt 22.2% 26.8%
Player Fouled 18.4% 24.2%
Turnover 13.3% 12.4%
Opponent Steal 8.7% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken IND PUR
Shot Blocked 4.9% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 21.0% 36.5%