NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring IND CONN
Points 60.0 78.5
Total Points   138.5
Points From 2-Pointers 35.5 35.6
Points From 3-Pointers 11.4 28.0
Points From Free Throws 13.1 14.8
Shooting IND CONN
Field Goals Made 21.6 27.1
Field Goals Attempted 55.7 61.0
Field Goal % 38.8% 44.5%
2 Pointers Made 17.8 17.8
2 Pointers Attempted 42.1 33.9
2 Point Shooting % 42.2% 52.6%
3 Pointers Made 3.8 9.3
3 Pointers Attempted 13.6 27.2
3 Point Shooting % 28.1% 34.4%
Free Throws Made 13.1 14.8
Free Throws Attempted 19.8 19.7
Free Throw % 65.9% 75.1%
Ball Control IND CONN
Rebounds 32.6 41.3
Rebounds - Defensive 24.2 29.0
Rebounds - Offensive 8.4 12.3
Turnovers 9.8 7.6
Blocked Shots 3.0 4.9
Steals 3.8 6.3
Fouls 14.2 15.9

Playing Style Advantage: Indiana

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IND CONN
Total Possessions 68.4
Effective Scoring Chances 67.0 73.1
% of Possessions with IND CONN
2 Point Attempt 53.4% 41.4%
3 Point Attempt 17.2% 33.2%
Player Fouled 23.3% 20.7%
Turnover 14.4% 11.1%
Opponent Steal 9.3% 5.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken IND CONN
Shot Blocked 8.2% 5.5%
Offensive Rebound 22.5% 33.7%