NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring IND PSU
Points 71.7 71.4
Total Points   143.1
Points From 2-Pointers 44.4 30.5
Points From 3-Pointers 12.2 25.4
Points From Free Throws 15.1 15.6
Shooting IND PSU
Field Goals Made 26.3 23.7
Field Goals Attempted 53.5 59.7
Field Goal % 49.1% 39.7%
2 Pointers Made 22.2 15.3
2 Pointers Attempted 39.3 34.2
2 Point Shooting % 56.4% 44.6%
3 Pointers Made 4.1 8.5
3 Pointers Attempted 14.1 25.5
3 Point Shooting % 28.8% 33.1%
Free Throws Made 15.1 15.6
Free Throws Attempted 22.9 20.8
Free Throw % 65.9% 74.9%
Ball Control IND PSU
Rebounds 38.4 32.0
Rebounds - Defensive 29.5 22.7
Rebounds - Offensive 9.0 9.3
Turnovers 13.2 9.1
Blocked Shots 3.1 3.1
Steals 4.4 8.5
Fouls 15.2 17.3

Playing Style Advantage: Indiana

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IND PSU
Total Possessions 72.0
Effective Scoring Chances 67.7 72.2
% of Possessions with IND PSU
2 Point Attempt 47.9% 41.4%
3 Point Attempt 17.2% 30.9%
Player Fouled 24.0% 21.2%
Turnover 18.4% 12.6%
Opponent Steal 11.8% 6.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken IND PSU
Shot Blocked 5.3% 6.0%
Offensive Rebound 28.3% 24.0%