NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TCU KU
Points 72.1 77.0
Total Points   149.1
Points From 2-Pointers 34.6 47.2
Points From 3-Pointers 22.9 15.6
Points From Free Throws 14.6 14.2
Shooting TCU KU
Field Goals Made 24.9 28.8
Field Goals Attempted 61.5 56.2
Field Goal % 40.5% 51.2%
2 Pointers Made 17.3 23.6
2 Pointers Attempted 41.2 40.4
2 Point Shooting % 41.9% 58.4%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 5.2
3 Pointers Attempted 20.2 15.8
3 Point Shooting % 37.8% 32.9%
Free Throws Made 14.6 14.2
Free Throws Attempted 20.1 19.9
Free Throw % 72.7% 71.4%
Ball Control TCU KU
Rebounds 34.5 35.4
Rebounds - Defensive 23.3 28.1
Rebounds - Offensive 11.2 7.3
Turnovers 10.8 12.3
Blocked Shots 2.9 4.1
Steals 7.6 6.3
Fouls 14.8 13.6

Playing Style Advantage: Kansas

Expected Effect: +0.8 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TCU KU
Total Possessions 73.3
Effective Scoring Chances 73.7 68.3
% of Possessions with TCU KU
2 Point Attempt 47.9% 49.4%
3 Point Attempt 23.5% 19.4%
Player Fouled 18.5% 20.2%
Turnover 14.8% 16.8%
Opponent Steal 8.6% 10.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken TCU KU
Shot Blocked 7.3% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 28.6% 23.9%