NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CSUS IDST
Points 63.8 68.0
Total Points   131.9
Points From 2-Pointers 34.1 37.5
Points From 3-Pointers 17.5 17.5
Points From Free Throws 12.2 13.1
Shooting CSUS IDST
Field Goals Made 22.9 24.6
Field Goals Attempted 50.4 52.9
Field Goal % 45.4% 46.5%
2 Pointers Made 17.1 18.8
2 Pointers Attempted 34.1 34.3
2 Point Shooting % 50.1% 54.6%
3 Pointers Made 5.8 5.8
3 Pointers Attempted 16.4 18.5
3 Point Shooting % 35.7% 31.4%
Free Throws Made 12.2 13.1
Free Throws Attempted 17.0 18.7
Free Throw % 71.7% 70.0%
Ball Control CSUS IDST
Rebounds 33.2 28.4
Rebounds - Defensive 23.0 19.9
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 8.5
Turnovers 13.5 9.0
Blocked Shots 2.1 3.6
Steals 4.9 7.1
Fouls 16.5 14.1

Playing Style Advantage: Idaho St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CSUS IDST
Total Possessions 64.9
Effective Scoring Chances 61.5 64.4
% of Possessions with CSUS IDST
2 Point Attempt 44.5% 46.2%
3 Point Attempt 21.4% 25.0%
Player Fouled 21.8% 25.4%
Turnover 20.8% 13.8%
Opponent Steal 11.0% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken CSUS IDST
Shot Blocked 7.0% 4.3%
Offensive Rebound 33.8% 26.9%