NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CSUS MTST
Points 65.9 73.1
Total Points   139.0
Points From 2-Pointers 33.6 35.6
Points From 3-Pointers 18.4 25.5
Points From Free Throws 14.0 12.0
Shooting CSUS MTST
Field Goals Made 22.9 26.3
Field Goals Attempted 51.8 53.4
Field Goal % 44.2% 49.2%
2 Pointers Made 16.8 17.8
2 Pointers Attempted 32.7 31.2
2 Point Shooting % 51.4% 57.0%
3 Pointers Made 6.1 8.5
3 Pointers Attempted 19.1 22.2
3 Point Shooting % 32.0% 38.3%
Free Throws Made 14.0 12.0
Free Throws Attempted 19.5 16.6
Free Throw % 71.7% 72.4%
Ball Control CSUS MTST
Rebounds 35.0 26.7
Rebounds - Defensive 24.2 21.2
Rebounds - Offensive 10.9 5.5
Turnovers 13.9 10.1
Blocked Shots 2.4 2.4
Steals 4.9 8.1
Fouls 16.0 15.8

Playing Style Advantage: Montana St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CSUS MTST
Total Possessions 67.9
Effective Scoring Chances 64.8 63.3
% of Possessions with CSUS MTST
2 Point Attempt 41.0% 41.9%
3 Point Attempt 24.0% 29.9%
Player Fouled 23.3% 23.6%
Turnover 20.5% 14.9%
Opponent Steal 11.9% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken CSUS MTST
Shot Blocked 4.6% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 33.9% 18.5%