NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ALST GONZ
Points 56.2 89.6
Total Points   145.8
Points From 2-Pointers 26.8 48.0
Points From 3-Pointers 19.8 24.0
Points From Free Throws 9.6 17.6
Shooting ALST GONZ
Field Goals Made 20.0 32.0
Field Goals Attempted 67.5 58.1
Field Goal % 29.7% 55.1%
2 Pointers Made 13.4 24.0
2 Pointers Attempted 43.0 37.1
2 Point Shooting % 31.1% 64.7%
3 Pointers Made 6.6 8.0
3 Pointers Attempted 24.5 21.0
3 Point Shooting % 27.0% 38.1%
Free Throws Made 9.6 17.6
Free Throws Attempted 13.3 23.9
Free Throw % 72.4% 73.6%
Ball Control ALST GONZ
Rebounds 30.7 47.5
Rebounds - Defensive 18.9 36.7
Rebounds - Offensive 11.8 10.8
Turnovers 8.6 9.7
Blocked Shots 2.9 5.7
Steals 5.7 5.0
Fouls 16.8 11.7

Playing Style Advantage: Gonzaga

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ALST GONZ
Total Possessions 71.6
Effective Scoring Chances 74.8 72.7
% of Possessions with ALST GONZ
2 Point Attempt 50.2% 44.4%
3 Point Attempt 28.6% 25.1%
Player Fouled 16.4% 23.5%
Turnover 12.0% 13.5%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken ALST GONZ
Shot Blocked 9.9% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 24.3% 36.3%