NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DSU LIB
Points 63.6 75.8
Total Points   139.3
Points From 2-Pointers 40.0 29.7
Points From 3-Pointers 10.5 35.9
Points From Free Throws 13.0 10.2
Shooting DSU LIB
Field Goals Made 23.5 26.8
Field Goals Attempted 54.8 55.6
Field Goal % 42.9% 48.3%
2 Pointers Made 20.0 14.9
2 Pointers Attempted 43.4 24.8
2 Point Shooting % 46.1% 59.9%
3 Pointers Made 3.5 12.0
3 Pointers Attempted 11.4 30.8
3 Point Shooting % 30.7% 38.9%
Free Throws Made 13.0 10.2
Free Throws Attempted 18.0 15.7
Free Throw % 72.3% 64.5%
Ball Control DSU LIB
Rebounds 32.7 33.5
Rebounds - Defensive 24.3 25.7
Rebounds - Offensive 8.4 7.8
Turnovers 11.9 11.8
Blocked Shots 1.6 2.3
Steals 6.2 4.9
Fouls 14.9 14.6

Playing Style Advantage: Liberty

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DSU LIB
Total Possessions 69.7
Effective Scoring Chances 66.2 65.7
% of Possessions with DSU LIB
2 Point Attempt 55.0% 31.7%
3 Point Attempt 14.4% 39.4%
Player Fouled 21.0% 21.4%
Turnover 17.1% 16.9%
Opponent Steal 7.1% 8.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken DSU LIB
Shot Blocked 4.2% 3.0%
Offensive Rebound 24.5% 24.2%