NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ALST DAY
Points 54.2 81.1
Total Points   135.3
Points From 2-Pointers 27.4 28.1
Points From 3-Pointers 19.3 34.0
Points From Free Throws 7.5 19.0
Shooting ALST DAY
Field Goals Made 20.2 25.4
Field Goals Attempted 65.5 51.3
Field Goal % 30.8% 49.5%
2 Pointers Made 13.7 14.1
2 Pointers Attempted 39.4 24.1
2 Point Shooting % 34.9% 58.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 11.3
3 Pointers Attempted 26.1 27.2
3 Point Shooting % 24.6% 41.8%
Free Throws Made 7.5 19.0
Free Throws Attempted 10.3 25.4
Free Throw % 72.4% 74.7%
Ball Control ALST DAY
Rebounds 32.2 43.2
Rebounds - Defensive 21.7 35.5
Rebounds - Offensive 10.6 7.7
Turnovers 8.5 10.6
Blocked Shots 3.8 4.7
Steals 6.2 4.4
Fouls 17.6 10.3

Playing Style Advantage: Dayton

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ALST DAY
Total Possessions 69.2
Effective Scoring Chances 71.3 66.3
% of Possessions with ALST DAY
2 Point Attempt 48.2% 30.7%
3 Point Attempt 32.0% 34.6%
Player Fouled 14.9% 25.5%
Turnover 12.3% 15.4%
Opponent Steal 6.4% 9.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken ALST DAY
Shot Blocked 9.4% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 23.0% 26.3%