NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ALST NORAL
Points 66.6 75.5
Total Points   142.2
Points From 2-Pointers 32.9 30.7
Points From 3-Pointers 18.1 25.5
Points From Free Throws 15.7 19.4
Shooting ALST NORAL
Field Goals Made 22.5 23.8
Field Goals Attempted 63.7 55.5
Field Goal % 35.3% 42.9%
2 Pointers Made 16.4 15.3
2 Pointers Attempted 42.5 32.1
2 Point Shooting % 38.7% 47.7%
3 Pointers Made 6.0 8.5
3 Pointers Attempted 21.2 23.4
3 Point Shooting % 28.4% 36.4%
Free Throws Made 15.7 19.4
Free Throws Attempted 21.7 25.1
Free Throw % 72.4% 77.2%
Ball Control ALST NORAL
Rebounds 37.2 41.5
Rebounds - Defensive 25.8 32.7
Rebounds - Offensive 11.4 8.7
Turnovers 7.6 11.0
Blocked Shots 4.7 4.3
Steals 5.9 3.8
Fouls 18.2 15.0

Playing Style Advantage: N Alabama

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ALST NORAL
Total Possessions 72.4
Effective Scoring Chances 76.3 70.2
% of Possessions with ALST NORAL
2 Point Attempt 49.7% 38.7%
3 Point Attempt 24.8% 28.1%
Player Fouled 20.7% 25.2%
Turnover 10.5% 15.2%
Opponent Steal 5.3% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken ALST NORAL
Shot Blocked 7.9% 7.6%
Offensive Rebound 25.9% 25.3%