NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CSUS NAU
Points 69.1 67.5
Total Points   136.6
Points From 2-Pointers 37.3 37.2
Points From 3-Pointers 17.3 18.2
Points From Free Throws 14.5 12.0
Shooting CSUS NAU
Field Goals Made 24.4 24.7
Field Goals Attempted 54.7 53.9
Field Goal % 44.7% 45.7%
2 Pointers Made 18.7 18.6
2 Pointers Attempted 35.4 34.4
2 Point Shooting % 52.7% 54.2%
3 Pointers Made 5.8 6.1
3 Pointers Attempted 19.3 19.6
3 Point Shooting % 29.9% 31.0%
Free Throws Made 14.5 12.0
Free Throws Attempted 20.2 17.4
Free Throw % 71.7% 69.2%
Ball Control CSUS NAU
Rebounds 37.2 28.4
Rebounds - Defensive 25.1 21.2
Rebounds - Offensive 12.1 7.2
Turnovers 11.9 10.3
Blocked Shots 2.5 3.1
Steals 5.8 5.6
Fouls 15.5 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: Sac State

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CSUS NAU
Total Possessions 67.6
Effective Scoring Chances 67.8 64.5
% of Possessions with CSUS NAU
2 Point Attempt 43.7% 45.3%
3 Point Attempt 23.8% 25.8%
Player Fouled 22.6% 22.9%
Turnover 17.6% 15.2%
Opponent Steal 8.2% 8.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken CSUS NAU
Shot Blocked 5.8% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 36.4% 22.3%