NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ALST PV
Points 71.5 67.1
Total Points   138.6
Points From 2-Pointers 36.4 35.2
Points From 3-Pointers 19.6 13.9
Points From Free Throws 15.5 18.0
Shooting ALST PV
Field Goals Made 24.8 22.2
Field Goals Attempted 60.7 54.4
Field Goal % 40.8% 40.9%
2 Pointers Made 18.2 17.6
2 Pointers Attempted 38.9 39.3
2 Point Shooting % 46.8% 44.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 4.6
3 Pointers Attempted 21.8 15.1
3 Point Shooting % 30.0% 30.6%
Free Throws Made 15.5 18.0
Free Throws Attempted 21.4 25.6
Free Throw % 72.4% 70.5%
Ball Control ALST PV
Rebounds 40.5 34.6
Rebounds - Defensive 27.6 26.2
Rebounds - Offensive 12.9 8.4
Turnovers 12.2 12.8
Blocked Shots 5.2 3.7
Steals 7.3 6.5
Fouls 19.1 15.4

Playing Style Advantage: Alabama St

Expected Effect: +0.9 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ALST PV
Total Possessions 73.7
Effective Scoring Chances 74.4 69.3
% of Possessions with ALST PV
2 Point Attempt 44.2% 46.6%
3 Point Attempt 24.7% 18.0%
Player Fouled 20.9% 25.9%
Turnover 16.6% 17.3%
Opponent Steal 8.9% 9.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken ALST PV
Shot Blocked 7.0% 8.8%
Offensive Rebound 33.0% 23.3%