NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ALST TXSO
Points 76.3 73.8
Total Points   150.1
Points From 2-Pointers 33.8 35.2
Points From 3-Pointers 25.2 20.6
Points From Free Throws 17.3 18.1
Shooting ALST TXSO
Field Goals Made 25.3 24.4
Field Goals Attempted 59.4 55.0
Field Goal % 42.6% 44.4%
2 Pointers Made 16.9 17.6
2 Pointers Attempted 34.3 35.0
2 Point Shooting % 49.3% 50.2%
3 Pointers Made 8.4 6.9
3 Pointers Attempted 25.1 20.0
3 Point Shooting % 33.4% 34.3%
Free Throws Made 17.3 18.1
Free Throws Attempted 24.7 24.8
Free Throw % 70.2% 72.8%
Ball Control ALST TXSO
Rebounds 37.5 35.1
Rebounds - Defensive 25.1 25.9
Rebounds - Offensive 12.3 9.1
Turnovers 11.4 13.1
Blocked Shots 3.6 3.0
Steals 7.7 6.6
Fouls 16.6 16.4

Playing Style Advantage: Alabama St

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ALST TXSO
Total Possessions 74.1
Effective Scoring Chances 75.0 70.2
% of Possessions with ALST TXSO
2 Point Attempt 39.2% 41.3%
3 Point Attempt 28.6% 23.6%
Player Fouled 22.1% 22.4%
Turnover 15.4% 17.6%
Opponent Steal 9.0% 10.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken ALST TXSO
Shot Blocked 5.5% 6.1%
Offensive Rebound 32.2% 26.7%