NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA LOU
Points 70.6 87.5
Total Points   158.1
Points From 2-Pointers 37.8 38.5
Points From 3-Pointers 22.6 35.3
Points From Free Throws 10.2 13.7
Shooting MIA LOU
Field Goals Made 26.4 31.0
Field Goals Attempted 59.6 60.6
Field Goal % 44.3% 51.2%
2 Pointers Made 18.9 19.2
2 Pointers Attempted 36.1 31.1
2 Point Shooting % 52.2% 61.9%
3 Pointers Made 7.5 11.8
3 Pointers Attempted 23.5 29.5
3 Point Shooting % 32.1% 39.9%
Free Throws Made 10.2 13.7
Free Throws Attempted 13.4 18.2
Free Throw % 76.2% 75.3%
Ball Control MIA LOU
Rebounds 30.5 36.3
Rebounds - Defensive 21.9 26.2
Rebounds - Offensive 8.6 10.1
Turnovers 10.7 8.7
Blocked Shots 2.9 2.5
Steals 5.4 5.4
Fouls 13.4 11.5

Playing Style Advantage: Louisville

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA LOU
Total Possessions 70.2
Effective Scoring Chances 68.1 71.6
% of Possessions with MIA LOU
2 Point Attempt 45.3% 38.1%
3 Point Attempt 29.4% 36.2%
Player Fouled 16.4% 19.1%
Turnover 15.3% 12.4%
Opponent Steal 7.7% 7.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA LOU
Shot Blocked 4.2% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 24.7% 31.6%