NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA LOU
Points 74.6 82.2
Total Points   156.8
Points From 2-Pointers 42.5 34.1
Points From 3-Pointers 17.0 35.9
Points From Free Throws 15.1 12.2
Shooting MIA LOU
Field Goals Made 26.9 29.0
Field Goals Attempted 58.0 58.5
Field Goal % 46.4% 49.6%
2 Pointers Made 21.3 17.0
2 Pointers Attempted 40.3 27.6
2 Point Shooting % 52.8% 61.6%
3 Pointers Made 5.7 12.0
3 Pointers Attempted 17.7 30.8
3 Point Shooting % 32.0% 38.8%
Free Throws Made 15.1 12.2
Free Throws Attempted 22.2 15.9
Free Throw % 67.8% 77.2%
Ball Control MIA LOU
Rebounds 33.4 32.9
Rebounds - Defensive 23.5 25.1
Rebounds - Offensive 9.9 7.8
Turnovers 10.8 11.8
Blocked Shots 3.1 4.2
Steals 7.3 6.8
Fouls 13.3 16.4

Playing Style Advantage: Louisville

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA LOU
Total Possessions 72.2
Effective Scoring Chances 71.3 68.2
% of Possessions with MIA LOU
2 Point Attempt 48.1% 34.0%
3 Point Attempt 21.2% 38.0%
Player Fouled 22.8% 18.4%
Turnover 14.9% 16.4%
Opponent Steal 9.4% 10.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA LOU
Shot Blocked 7.3% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 28.2% 24.9%