NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA UVA
Points 61.1 66.8
Total Points   127.9
Points From 2-Pointers 29.2 34.3
Points From 3-Pointers 23.9 25.4
Points From Free Throws 8.0 7.0
Shooting MIA UVA
Field Goals Made 22.6 25.6
Field Goals Attempted 57.5 61.2
Field Goal % 39.3% 41.9%
2 Pointers Made 14.6 17.2
2 Pointers Attempted 32.0 36.7
2 Point Shooting % 45.7% 46.8%
3 Pointers Made 8.0 8.5
3 Pointers Attempted 25.5 24.5
3 Point Shooting % 31.2% 34.6%
Free Throws Made 8.0 7.0
Free Throws Attempted 11.1 11.3
Free Throw % 71.6% 62.1%
Ball Control MIA UVA
Rebounds 37.7 36.0
Rebounds - Defensive 28.4 26.7
Rebounds - Offensive 9.3 9.3
Turnovers 11.1 7.2
Blocked Shots 3.0 5.2
Steals 4.9 7.1
Fouls 9.4 10.8

Playing Style Advantage: Virginia

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA UVA
Total Possessions 65.8
Effective Scoring Chances 63.9 67.9
% of Possessions with MIA UVA
2 Point Attempt 41.5% 48.1%
3 Point Attempt 33.0% 32.1%
Player Fouled 16.4% 14.3%
Turnover 16.9% 11.0%
Opponent Steal 10.8% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA UVA
Shot Blocked 8.7% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 25.8% 24.7%