NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA HOU
Points 59.0 79.4
Total Points   138.4
Points From 2-Pointers 23.9 37.4
Points From 3-Pointers 23.4 31.5
Points From Free Throws 11.6 10.6
Shooting MIA HOU
Field Goals Made 19.8 29.2
Field Goals Attempted 53.6 66.4
Field Goal % 36.9% 44.0%
2 Pointers Made 12.0 18.7
2 Pointers Attempted 29.4 36.5
2 Point Shooting % 40.8% 51.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.8 10.5
3 Pointers Attempted 24.2 29.9
3 Point Shooting % 32.3% 35.0%
Free Throws Made 11.6 10.6
Free Throws Attempted 16.2 14.9
Free Throw % 71.6% 71.1%
Ball Control MIA HOU
Rebounds 33.8 41.5
Rebounds - Defensive 24.6 26.6
Rebounds - Offensive 9.1 14.9
Turnovers 14.2 7.2
Blocked Shots 2.0 5.6
Steals 4.4 9.5
Fouls 10.9 14.1

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA HOU
Total Possessions 68.4
Effective Scoring Chances 63.3 76.1
% of Possessions with MIA HOU
2 Point Attempt 36.8% 43.3%
3 Point Attempt 30.3% 35.6%
Player Fouled 20.6% 15.9%
Turnover 20.7% 10.6%
Opponent Steal 14.0% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA HOU
Shot Blocked 8.4% 3.9%
Offensive Rebound 25.5% 37.7%