NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA ALA
Points 78.0 92.0
Total Points   170.0
Points From 2-Pointers 39.0 32.9
Points From 3-Pointers 25.6 46.1
Points From Free Throws 13.4 13.1
Shooting MIA ALA
Field Goals Made 28.0 31.8
Field Goals Attempted 64.8 68.2
Field Goal % 43.3% 46.6%
2 Pointers Made 19.5 16.4
2 Pointers Attempted 38.9 27.5
2 Point Shooting % 50.1% 59.7%
3 Pointers Made 8.5 15.4
3 Pointers Attempted 25.9 40.7
3 Point Shooting % 33.1% 37.8%
Free Throws Made 13.4 13.1
Free Throws Attempted 18.7 17.1
Free Throw % 71.6% 76.4%
Ball Control MIA ALA
Rebounds 35.0 42.7
Rebounds - Defensive 24.9 29.2
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 13.5
Turnovers 10.4 10.4
Blocked Shots 3.2 4.8
Steals 7.0 6.7
Fouls 13.3 15.1

Playing Style Advantage: Alabama

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA ALA
Total Possessions 76.0
Effective Scoring Chances 75.7 79.1
% of Possessions with MIA ALA
2 Point Attempt 44.2% 30.3%
3 Point Attempt 29.4% 44.8%
Player Fouled 19.9% 17.5%
Turnover 13.7% 13.7%
Opponent Steal 8.9% 9.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA ALA
Shot Blocked 7.2% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 25.7% 35.2%