NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA ND
Points 69.8 68.5
Total Points   138.3
Points From 2-Pointers 35.8 26.3
Points From 3-Pointers 24.6 32.7
Points From Free Throws 9.5 9.5
Shooting MIA ND
Field Goals Made 26.1 24.0
Field Goals Attempted 59.9 59.1
Field Goal % 43.6% 40.7%
2 Pointers Made 17.9 13.2
2 Pointers Attempted 35.4 27.4
2 Point Shooting % 50.6% 48.1%
3 Pointers Made 8.2 10.9
3 Pointers Attempted 24.5 31.8
3 Point Shooting % 33.4% 34.3%
Free Throws Made 9.5 9.5
Free Throws Attempted 13.2 12.9
Free Throw % 71.6% 73.7%
Ball Control MIA ND
Rebounds 35.5 36.8
Rebounds - Defensive 26.5 26.7
Rebounds - Offensive 9.0 10.1
Turnovers 9.4 11.3
Blocked Shots 3.5 2.4
Steals 6.5 5.9
Fouls 10.6 12.1

Playing Style Advantage: Notre Dame

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA ND
Total Possessions 68.5
Effective Scoring Chances 68.1 67.3
% of Possessions with MIA ND
2 Point Attempt 45.0% 34.2%
3 Point Attempt 31.2% 39.7%
Player Fouled 17.7% 15.5%
Turnover 13.7% 16.5%
Opponent Steal 8.7% 9.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA ND
Shot Blocked 4.2% 6.0%
Offensive Rebound 25.3% 27.7%