NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA VT
Points 73.0 77.0
Total Points   150.0
Points From 2-Pointers 39.2 33.2
Points From 3-Pointers 23.7 32.2
Points From Free Throws 10.1 11.6
Shooting MIA VT
Field Goals Made 27.5 27.3
Field Goals Attempted 59.4 60.0
Field Goal % 46.3% 45.6%
2 Pointers Made 19.6 16.6
2 Pointers Attempted 37.1 29.2
2 Point Shooting % 52.9% 56.8%
3 Pointers Made 7.9 10.7
3 Pointers Attempted 22.3 30.7
3 Point Shooting % 35.4% 34.9%
Free Throws Made 10.1 11.6
Free Throws Attempted 14.1 14.5
Free Throw % 71.6% 79.8%
Ball Control MIA VT
Rebounds 34.6 33.6
Rebounds - Defensive 26.0 25.5
Rebounds - Offensive 8.6 8.1
Turnovers 10.8 9.8
Blocked Shots 2.6 2.5
Steals 6.4 5.7
Fouls 12.2 12.7

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA VT
Total Possessions 70.5
Effective Scoring Chances 68.3 68.8
% of Possessions with MIA VT
2 Point Attempt 46.3% 36.7%
3 Point Attempt 27.9% 38.6%
Player Fouled 18.0% 17.3%
Turnover 15.3% 13.8%
Opponent Steal 8.1% 9.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA VT
Shot Blocked 4.2% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 25.2% 23.8%