NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA CONN
Points 60.5 83.3
Total Points   143.8
Points From 2-Pointers 30.7 37.5
Points From 3-Pointers 19.6 34.1
Points From Free Throws 10.2 11.7
Shooting MIA CONN
Field Goals Made 21.9 30.1
Field Goals Attempted 60.4 62.8
Field Goal % 36.3% 47.9%
2 Pointers Made 15.4 18.7
2 Pointers Attempted 39.5 30.8
2 Point Shooting % 38.9% 60.9%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 11.4
3 Pointers Attempted 20.9 32.0
3 Point Shooting % 31.2% 35.5%
Free Throws Made 10.2 11.7
Free Throws Attempted 14.2 15.5
Free Throw % 71.6% 75.1%
Ball Control MIA CONN
Rebounds 31.2 43.5
Rebounds - Defensive 22.3 31.1
Rebounds - Offensive 8.9 12.4
Turnovers 9.6 8.6
Blocked Shots 2.4 5.6
Steals 5.3 5.9
Fouls 11.6 12.9

Playing Style Advantage: Connecticut

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA CONN
Total Possessions 68.9
Effective Scoring Chances 68.2 72.8
% of Possessions with MIA CONN
2 Point Attempt 49.3% 37.4%
3 Point Attempt 26.2% 38.9%
Player Fouled 18.7% 16.9%
Turnover 13.9% 12.4%
Opponent Steal 8.6% 7.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA CONN
Shot Blocked 9.0% 4.1%
Offensive Rebound 22.2% 35.8%