NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA TEX
Points 69.3 78.2
Total Points   147.5
Points From 2-Pointers 34.9 40.0
Points From 3-Pointers 23.6 27.8
Points From Free Throws 10.8 10.4
Shooting MIA TEX
Field Goals Made 25.3 29.3
Field Goals Attempted 59.4 62.7
Field Goal % 42.6% 46.7%
2 Pointers Made 17.4 20.0
2 Pointers Attempted 37.8 36.2
2 Point Shooting % 46.1% 55.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.9 9.3
3 Pointers Attempted 21.5 26.5
3 Point Shooting % 36.5% 35.0%
Free Throws Made 10.8 10.4
Free Throws Attempted 15.1 13.6
Free Throw % 71.6% 76.5%
Ball Control MIA TEX
Rebounds 33.8 37.2
Rebounds - Defensive 24.8 27.1
Rebounds - Offensive 9.0 10.1
Turnovers 11.5 9.8
Blocked Shots 2.8 4.2
Steals 5.8 7.0
Fouls 11.2 13.5

Playing Style Advantage: Texas

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA TEX
Total Possessions 70.9
Effective Scoring Chances 68.4 71.2
% of Possessions with MIA TEX
2 Point Attempt 46.4% 44.0%
3 Point Attempt 26.4% 32.3%
Player Fouled 19.0% 15.8%
Turnover 16.2% 13.8%
Opponent Steal 9.8% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA TEX
Shot Blocked 6.9% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 24.9% 28.9%