NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA PSU
Points 71.7 75.7
Total Points   147.4
Points From 2-Pointers 38.8 32.6
Points From 3-Pointers 21.1 31.0
Points From Free Throws 11.9 12.1
Shooting MIA PSU
Field Goals Made 26.4 26.6
Field Goals Attempted 58.9 61.6
Field Goal % 44.8% 43.2%
2 Pointers Made 19.4 16.3
2 Pointers Attempted 36.8 31.4
2 Point Shooting % 52.7% 51.8%
3 Pointers Made 7.0 10.3
3 Pointers Attempted 22.1 30.2
3 Point Shooting % 31.7% 34.3%
Free Throws Made 11.9 12.1
Free Throws Attempted 16.6 16.1
Free Throw % 71.6% 74.9%
Ball Control MIA PSU
Rebounds 37.4 34.6
Rebounds - Defensive 27.7 25.2
Rebounds - Offensive 9.8 9.4
Turnovers 12.9 10.3
Blocked Shots 2.6 3.5
Steals 6.2 8.0
Fouls 12.5 14.0

Playing Style Advantage: Penn St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA PSU
Total Possessions 72.5
Effective Scoring Chances 69.4 71.6
% of Possessions with MIA PSU
2 Point Attempt 44.0% 37.9%
3 Point Attempt 26.5% 36.4%
Player Fouled 19.3% 17.2%
Turnover 17.8% 14.2%
Opponent Steal 11.0% 8.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA PSU
Shot Blocked 5.8% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 28.0% 25.4%