NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA SYR
Points 76.3 78.0
Total Points   154.3
Points From 2-Pointers 38.4 39.3
Points From 3-Pointers 29.0 27.2
Points From Free Throws 8.9 11.5
Shooting MIA SYR
Field Goals Made 28.9 28.7
Field Goals Attempted 62.2 61.4
Field Goal % 46.5% 46.8%
2 Pointers Made 19.2 19.6
2 Pointers Attempted 36.8 36.3
2 Point Shooting % 52.2% 54.1%
3 Pointers Made 9.7 9.1
3 Pointers Attempted 25.4 25.1
3 Point Shooting % 38.1% 36.2%
Free Throws Made 8.9 11.5
Free Throws Attempted 12.4 15.8
Free Throw % 71.6% 72.8%
Ball Control MIA SYR
Rebounds 37.4 32.5
Rebounds - Defensive 27.0 24.5
Rebounds - Offensive 10.4 8.0
Turnovers 13.4 10.2
Blocked Shots 2.6 3.8
Steals 6.2 9.2
Fouls 11.7 11.9

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA SYR
Total Possessions 73.2
Effective Scoring Chances 70.2 71.0
% of Possessions with MIA SYR
2 Point Attempt 43.2% 44.2%
3 Point Attempt 29.8% 30.5%
Player Fouled 16.3% 16.0%
Turnover 18.3% 13.9%
Opponent Steal 12.6% 8.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA SYR
Shot Blocked 6.2% 4.3%
Offensive Rebound 29.9% 22.9%