NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA PITT
Points 67.8 78.6
Total Points   146.5
Points From 2-Pointers 33.3 29.9
Points From 3-Pointers 24.7 38.5
Points From Free Throws 9.8 10.2
Shooting MIA PITT
Field Goals Made 24.9 27.8
Field Goals Attempted 58.6 64.7
Field Goal % 42.4% 43.0%
2 Pointers Made 16.6 15.0
2 Pointers Attempted 33.1 29.5
2 Point Shooting % 50.3% 50.7%
3 Pointers Made 8.2 12.8
3 Pointers Attempted 25.5 35.2
3 Point Shooting % 32.3% 36.5%
Free Throws Made 9.8 10.2
Free Throws Attempted 13.7 14.0
Free Throw % 71.6% 73.0%
Ball Control MIA PITT
Rebounds 35.0 39.2
Rebounds - Defensive 27.3 27.7
Rebounds - Offensive 7.7 11.5
Turnovers 10.6 7.5
Blocked Shots 2.7 4.6
Steals 4.6 6.6
Fouls 11.4 12.5

Playing Style Advantage: Pittsburgh

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA PITT
Total Possessions 69.3
Effective Scoring Chances 66.4 73.3
% of Possessions with MIA PITT
2 Point Attempt 42.0% 36.0%
3 Point Attempt 32.4% 43.0%
Player Fouled 18.0% 16.4%
Turnover 15.3% 10.9%
Opponent Steal 9.5% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA PITT
Shot Blocked 7.2% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 21.9% 29.7%