NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA PITT
Points 67.8 78.8
Total Points   146.6
Points From 2-Pointers 33.2 29.9
Points From 3-Pointers 24.8 38.6
Points From Free Throws 9.8 10.3
Shooting MIA PITT
Field Goals Made 24.9 27.8
Field Goals Attempted 58.6 64.6
Field Goal % 42.4% 43.1%
2 Pointers Made 16.6 15.0
2 Pointers Attempted 33.1 29.5
2 Point Shooting % 50.2% 50.7%
3 Pointers Made 8.3 12.9
3 Pointers Attempted 25.5 35.1
3 Point Shooting % 32.3% 36.6%
Free Throws Made 9.8 10.3
Free Throws Attempted 13.7 14.1
Free Throw % 71.6% 73.0%
Ball Control MIA PITT
Rebounds 34.9 39.1
Rebounds - Defensive 27.2 27.6
Rebounds - Offensive 7.7 11.5
Turnovers 10.6 7.5
Blocked Shots 2.7 4.6
Steals 4.7 6.6
Fouls 11.4 12.5

Playing Style Advantage: Pittsburgh

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA PITT
Total Possessions 69.3
Effective Scoring Chances 66.4 73.2
% of Possessions with MIA PITT
2 Point Attempt 41.9% 36.0%
3 Point Attempt 32.4% 42.9%
Player Fouled 18.0% 16.5%
Turnover 15.3% 10.9%
Opponent Steal 9.5% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA PITT
Shot Blocked 7.3% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 21.9% 29.7%