NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA FSU
Points 75.2 76.2
Total Points   151.4
Points From 2-Pointers 34.8 41.1
Points From 3-Pointers 27.2 22.6
Points From Free Throws 13.2 12.4
Shooting MIA FSU
Field Goals Made 26.5 28.1
Field Goals Attempted 59.2 62.1
Field Goal % 44.7% 45.3%
2 Pointers Made 17.4 20.6
2 Pointers Attempted 34.9 38.3
2 Point Shooting % 49.8% 53.6%
3 Pointers Made 9.1 7.5
3 Pointers Attempted 24.3 23.8
3 Point Shooting % 37.3% 31.8%
Free Throws Made 13.2 12.4
Free Throws Attempted 18.5 17.6
Free Throw % 71.6% 70.5%
Ball Control MIA FSU
Rebounds 37.5 34.8
Rebounds - Defensive 26.5 24.5
Rebounds - Offensive 10.9 10.3
Turnovers 13.7 10.7
Blocked Shots 2.4 4.4
Steals 5.7 9.2
Fouls 13.3 15.1

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA FSU
Total Possessions 73.6
Effective Scoring Chances 70.9 73.2
% of Possessions with MIA FSU
2 Point Attempt 40.5% 45.1%
3 Point Attempt 28.2% 28.0%
Player Fouled 20.6% 18.0%
Turnover 18.6% 14.5%
Opponent Steal 12.5% 7.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA FSU
Shot Blocked 7.2% 4.2%
Offensive Rebound 30.9% 28.0%