NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA UNC
Points 69.3 84.4
Total Points   153.7
Points From 2-Pointers 34.8 37.9
Points From 3-Pointers 24.6 33.2
Points From Free Throws 9.9 13.3
Shooting MIA UNC
Field Goals Made 25.6 30.0
Field Goals Attempted 62.8 66.7
Field Goal % 40.7% 45.0%
2 Pointers Made 17.4 19.0
2 Pointers Attempted 38.4 36.9
2 Point Shooting % 45.3% 51.3%
3 Pointers Made 8.2 11.1
3 Pointers Attempted 24.4 29.8
3 Point Shooting % 33.5% 37.2%
Free Throws Made 9.9 13.3
Free Throws Attempted 13.9 17.6
Free Throw % 71.6% 75.4%
Ball Control MIA UNC
Rebounds 33.8 44.0
Rebounds - Defensive 25.9 31.1
Rebounds - Offensive 7.9 12.9
Turnovers 10.2 8.5
Blocked Shots 3.1 4.2
Steals 5.0 6.3
Fouls 12.6 13.3

Playing Style Advantage: N Carolina

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA UNC
Total Possessions 73.1
Effective Scoring Chances 70.8 77.6
% of Possessions with MIA UNC
2 Point Attempt 46.5% 42.3%
3 Point Attempt 29.6% 34.1%
Player Fouled 18.2% 17.2%
Turnover 14.0% 11.6%
Opponent Steal 8.6% 6.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA UNC
Shot Blocked 6.3% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 20.2% 33.3%