NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NIU OHIO
Points 69.5 80.2
Total Points   149.7
Points From 2-Pointers 32.7 33.3
Points From 3-Pointers 21.4 29.7
Points From Free Throws 15.5 17.2
Shooting NIU OHIO
Field Goals Made 23.5 26.6
Field Goals Attempted 54.8 60.2
Field Goal % 42.8% 44.1%
2 Pointers Made 16.3 16.7
2 Pointers Attempted 34.0 34.4
2 Point Shooting % 48.0% 48.5%
3 Pointers Made 7.1 9.9
3 Pointers Attempted 20.8 25.8
3 Point Shooting % 34.2% 38.3%
Free Throws Made 15.5 17.2
Free Throws Attempted 22.9 23.2
Free Throw % 67.4% 74.1%
Ball Control NIU OHIO
Rebounds 37.3 35.0
Rebounds - Defensive 26.7 25.0
Rebounds - Offensive 10.6 9.9
Turnovers 12.7 8.0
Blocked Shots 4.7 3.0
Steals 3.5 6.7
Fouls 15.8 16.6

Playing Style Advantage: N Illinois

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NIU OHIO
Total Possessions 71.5
Effective Scoring Chances 69.4 73.4
% of Possessions with NIU OHIO
2 Point Attempt 40.9% 41.3%
3 Point Attempt 25.0% 31.0%
Player Fouled 23.2% 22.1%
Turnover 17.8% 11.2%
Opponent Steal 9.4% 4.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken NIU OHIO
Shot Blocked 5.2% 8.7%
Offensive Rebound 29.7% 27.1%