NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NIU WMU
Points 73.1 74.3
Total Points   147.4
Points From 2-Pointers 35.0 34.3
Points From 3-Pointers 22.9 25.9
Points From Free Throws 15.2 14.0
Shooting NIU WMU
Field Goals Made 25.1 25.8
Field Goals Attempted 57.8 60.7
Field Goal % 43.5% 42.5%
2 Pointers Made 17.5 17.2
2 Pointers Attempted 34.9 36.8
2 Point Shooting % 50.1% 46.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 8.6
3 Pointers Attempted 22.8 23.9
3 Point Shooting % 33.4% 36.1%
Free Throws Made 15.2 14.0
Free Throws Attempted 22.6 22.8
Free Throw % 67.4% 61.5%
Ball Control NIU WMU
Rebounds 36.3 40.6
Rebounds - Defensive 25.9 26.5
Rebounds - Offensive 10.4 14.1
Turnovers 10.3 10.5
Blocked Shots 2.9 2.4
Steals 4.6 4.8
Fouls 15.8 17.2

Playing Style Advantage: W Michigan

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NIU WMU
Total Possessions 71.8
Effective Scoring Chances 71.9 75.4
% of Possessions with NIU WMU
2 Point Attempt 42.0% 42.3%
3 Point Attempt 27.5% 27.5%
Player Fouled 24.0% 22.0%
Turnover 14.3% 14.6%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken NIU WMU
Shot Blocked 4.0% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 28.1% 35.2%