NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CONN GONZ
Points 78.9 67.8
Total Points   146.7
Points From 2-Pointers 38.7 41.0
Points From 3-Pointers 26.9 14.2
Points From Free Throws 13.3 12.6
Shooting CONN GONZ
Field Goals Made 28.3 25.2
Field Goals Attempted 61.7 60.3
Field Goal % 45.9% 41.9%
2 Pointers Made 19.4 20.5
2 Pointers Attempted 37.0 45.0
2 Point Shooting % 52.3% 45.6%
3 Pointers Made 9.0 4.7
3 Pointers Attempted 24.7 15.2
3 Point Shooting % 36.3% 31.0%
Free Throws Made 13.3 12.6
Free Throws Attempted 17.7 17.2
Free Throw % 75.1% 73.6%
Ball Control CONN GONZ
Rebounds 39.3 33.5
Rebounds - Defensive 26.9 23.3
Rebounds - Offensive 12.3 10.2
Turnovers 7.7 7.9
Blocked Shots 4.1 3.1
Steals 4.4 4.7
Fouls 13.7 13.8

Playing Style Advantage: Connecticut

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CONN GONZ
Total Possessions 67.9
Effective Scoring Chances 72.5 70.2
% of Possessions with CONN GONZ
2 Point Attempt 45.4% 56.5%
3 Point Attempt 30.3% 19.1%
Player Fouled 20.3% 20.1%
Turnover 11.4% 11.6%
Opponent Steal 6.9% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken CONN GONZ
Shot Blocked 5.2% 6.7%
Offensive Rebound 34.6% 27.5%