NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NIU BALL
Points 72.2 75.4
Total Points   147.5
Points From 2-Pointers 36.5 31.5
Points From 3-Pointers 22.4 24.3
Points From Free Throws 13.3 19.6
Shooting NIU BALL
Field Goals Made 25.7 23.8
Field Goals Attempted 57.9 55.7
Field Goal % 44.4% 42.8%
2 Pointers Made 18.2 15.7
2 Pointers Attempted 36.5 34.8
2 Point Shooting % 50.0% 45.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.5 8.1
3 Pointers Attempted 21.4 20.9
3 Point Shooting % 34.8% 38.8%
Free Throws Made 13.3 19.6
Free Throws Attempted 19.8 25.2
Free Throw % 67.4% 77.8%
Ball Control NIU BALL
Rebounds 35.4 35.1
Rebounds - Defensive 25.6 26.1
Rebounds - Offensive 9.8 8.9
Turnovers 10.7 10.0
Blocked Shots 4.7 2.4
Steals 4.6 5.0
Fouls 17.6 15.4

Playing Style Advantage: Ball St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NIU BALL
Total Possessions 71.3
Effective Scoring Chances 70.4 70.3
% of Possessions with NIU BALL
2 Point Attempt 44.4% 42.3%
3 Point Attempt 26.1% 25.4%
Player Fouled 21.5% 24.6%
Turnover 15.1% 14.0%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken NIU BALL
Shot Blocked 4.4% 8.2%
Offensive Rebound 27.3% 25.9%