NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HCU IW
Points 75.8 81.5
Total Points   157.3
Points From 2-Pointers 41.9 45.3
Points From 3-Pointers 16.5 22.1
Points From Free Throws 17.4 14.1
Shooting HCU IW
Field Goals Made 26.4 30.0
Field Goals Attempted 59.7 63.9
Field Goal % 44.3% 47.0%
2 Pointers Made 20.9 22.7
2 Pointers Attempted 43.8 41.6
2 Point Shooting % 47.8% 54.5%
3 Pointers Made 5.5 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 15.9 22.4
3 Point Shooting % 34.6% 32.9%
Free Throws Made 17.4 14.1
Free Throws Attempted 27.2 19.7
Free Throw % 64.1% 71.7%
Ball Control HCU IW
Rebounds 36.0 39.6
Rebounds - Defensive 25.0 27.6
Rebounds - Offensive 11.0 12.0
Turnovers 11.1 11.2
Blocked Shots 2.4 5.3
Steals 6.1 6.5
Fouls 13.3 16.9

Playing Style Advantage: Incar Word

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HCU IW
Total Possessions 75.8
Effective Scoring Chances 75.7 76.6
% of Possessions with HCU IW
2 Point Attempt 49.3% 46.8%
3 Point Attempt 17.9% 25.2%
Player Fouled 22.3% 17.5%
Turnover 14.6% 14.8%
Opponent Steal 8.5% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken HCU IW
Shot Blocked 8.4% 4.1%
Offensive Rebound 28.4% 32.4%