NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NIU CMU
Points 68.6 69.5
Total Points   138.1
Points From 2-Pointers 31.4 35.2
Points From 3-Pointers 22.7 20.9
Points From Free Throws 14.5 13.4
Shooting NIU CMU
Field Goals Made 23.3 24.6
Field Goals Attempted 59.1 61.3
Field Goal % 39.4% 40.1%
2 Pointers Made 15.7 17.6
2 Pointers Attempted 33.8 39.5
2 Point Shooting % 46.6% 44.6%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 25.3 21.9
3 Point Shooting % 29.8% 31.8%
Free Throws Made 14.5 13.4
Free Throws Attempted 21.6 20.0
Free Throw % 67.4% 67.1%
Ball Control NIU CMU
Rebounds 40.4 39.3
Rebounds - Defensive 28.3 27.6
Rebounds - Offensive 12.1 11.7
Turnovers 10.1 9.2
Blocked Shots 4.9 3.2
Steals 3.9 5.4
Fouls 14.2 15.8

Playing Style Advantage: N Illinois

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NIU CMU
Total Possessions 70.5
Effective Scoring Chances 72.5 73.0
% of Possessions with NIU CMU
2 Point Attempt 40.2% 46.9%
3 Point Attempt 30.2% 26.0%
Player Fouled 22.4% 20.1%
Turnover 14.3% 13.0%
Opponent Steal 7.7% 5.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken NIU CMU
Shot Blocked 5.4% 8.5%
Offensive Rebound 30.4% 29.2%