NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HCU MCNS
Points 62.2 90.6
Total Points   152.8
Points From 2-Pointers 31.2 52.5
Points From 3-Pointers 17.6 22.7
Points From Free Throws 13.4 15.5
Shooting HCU MCNS
Field Goals Made 21.5 33.8
Field Goals Attempted 52.4 62.5
Field Goal % 41.0% 54.1%
2 Pointers Made 15.6 26.2
2 Pointers Attempted 33.2 43.5
2 Point Shooting % 47.0% 60.3%
3 Pointers Made 5.9 7.6
3 Pointers Attempted 19.2 19.0
3 Point Shooting % 30.6% 39.7%
Free Throws Made 13.4 15.5
Free Throws Attempted 20.9 22.4
Free Throw % 64.1% 69.1%
Ball Control HCU MCNS
Rebounds 31.2 36.6
Rebounds - Defensive 21.2 24.9
Rebounds - Offensive 9.9 11.7
Turnovers 16.3 7.1
Blocked Shots 1.8 5.2
Steals 3.5 10.7
Fouls 14.2 16.3

Playing Style Advantage: Hsn Christian

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HCU MCNS
Total Possessions 71.8
Effective Scoring Chances 65.5 76.4
% of Possessions with HCU MCNS
2 Point Attempt 39.7% 51.7%
3 Point Attempt 22.9% 22.6%
Player Fouled 22.8% 19.8%
Turnover 22.7% 9.9%
Opponent Steal 14.8% 4.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken HCU MCNS
Shot Blocked 8.4% 3.4%
Offensive Rebound 28.5% 35.5%