NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NE HC
Points 75.2 65.1
Total Points   140.3
Points From 2-Pointers 39.3 32.6
Points From 3-Pointers 23.3 23.9
Points From Free Throws 12.6 8.6
Shooting NE HC
Field Goals Made 27.4 24.3
Field Goals Attempted 56.7 54.1
Field Goal % 48.4% 44.9%
2 Pointers Made 19.7 16.3
2 Pointers Attempted 35.8 33.7
2 Point Shooting % 55.0% 48.4%
3 Pointers Made 7.8 8.0
3 Pointers Attempted 20.9 20.3
3 Point Shooting % 37.2% 39.1%
Free Throws Made 12.6 8.6
Free Throws Attempted 17.1 13.0
Free Throw % 73.5% 66.3%
Ball Control NE HC
Rebounds 35.0 28.7
Rebounds - Defensive 25.9 22.6
Rebounds - Offensive 9.1 6.1
Turnovers 7.6 10.0
Blocked Shots 3.3 2.6
Steals 5.9 3.6
Fouls 12.0 13.8

Playing Style Advantage: Holy Cross

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NE HC
Total Possessions 65.5
Effective Scoring Chances 67.0 61.6
% of Possessions with NE HC
2 Point Attempt 47.3% 46.3%
3 Point Attempt 27.6% 27.9%
Player Fouled 21.1% 18.3%
Turnover 11.6% 15.3%
Opponent Steal 5.5% 9.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken NE HC
Shot Blocked 4.9% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 28.6% 19.0%