NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CONN ORE
Points 79.5 62.5
Total Points   142.0
Points From 2-Pointers 38.9 33.4
Points From 3-Pointers 25.8 15.6
Points From Free Throws 14.7 13.6
Shooting CONN ORE
Field Goals Made 28.1 21.9
Field Goals Attempted 57.5 58.3
Field Goal % 48.8% 37.6%
2 Pointers Made 19.5 16.7
2 Pointers Attempted 33.4 40.2
2 Point Shooting % 58.2% 41.6%
3 Pointers Made 8.6 5.2
3 Pointers Attempted 24.1 18.1
3 Point Shooting % 35.7% 28.7%
Free Throws Made 14.7 13.6
Free Throws Attempted 19.6 18.6
Free Throw % 75.1% 72.9%
Ball Control CONN ORE
Rebounds 39.6 31.0
Rebounds - Defensive 29.4 21.9
Rebounds - Offensive 10.2 9.2
Turnovers 8.8 8.5
Blocked Shots 5.2 3.2
Steals 4.6 5.3
Fouls 15.2 14.4

Playing Style Advantage: Oregon

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CONN ORE
Total Possessions 68.0
Effective Scoring Chances 69.4 68.7
% of Possessions with CONN ORE
2 Point Attempt 42.1% 50.7%
3 Point Attempt 30.3% 22.8%
Player Fouled 21.2% 22.4%
Turnover 12.9% 12.5%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 6.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken CONN ORE
Shot Blocked 5.6% 9.2%
Offensive Rebound 31.8% 23.7%