NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NIU EMU
Points 73.8 68.7
Total Points   142.5
Points From 2-Pointers 36.8 37.6
Points From 3-Pointers 22.6 19.5
Points From Free Throws 14.5 11.7
Shooting NIU EMU
Field Goals Made 25.9 25.3
Field Goals Attempted 56.6 60.9
Field Goal % 45.8% 41.5%
2 Pointers Made 18.4 18.8
2 Pointers Attempted 33.3 41.4
2 Point Shooting % 55.2% 45.4%
3 Pointers Made 7.5 6.5
3 Pointers Attempted 23.3 19.5
3 Point Shooting % 32.3% 33.2%
Free Throws Made 14.5 11.7
Free Throws Attempted 21.5 17.5
Free Throw % 67.4% 66.6%
Ball Control NIU EMU
Rebounds 38.4 34.8
Rebounds - Defensive 28.2 24.6
Rebounds - Offensive 10.2 10.3
Turnovers 10.1 9.2
Blocked Shots 4.5 2.1
Steals 4.5 5.6
Fouls 13.5 16.5

Playing Style Advantage: N Illinois

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NIU EMU
Total Possessions 70.0
Effective Scoring Chances 70.1 71.1
% of Possessions with NIU EMU
2 Point Attempt 41.1% 50.4%
3 Point Attempt 28.7% 23.8%
Player Fouled 23.6% 19.3%
Turnover 14.4% 13.1%
Opponent Steal 8.1% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken NIU EMU
Shot Blocked 3.6% 8.0%
Offensive Rebound 29.4% 26.7%