NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NIU BGSU
Points 73.6 74.9
Total Points   148.4
Points From 2-Pointers 37.7 37.2
Points From 3-Pointers 22.9 19.4
Points From Free Throws 12.9 18.3
Shooting NIU BGSU
Field Goals Made 26.5 25.1
Field Goals Attempted 57.4 60.4
Field Goal % 46.2% 41.5%
2 Pointers Made 18.9 18.6
2 Pointers Attempted 36.7 40.2
2 Point Shooting % 51.4% 46.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 6.5
3 Pointers Attempted 20.7 20.2
3 Point Shooting % 36.9% 32.0%
Free Throws Made 12.9 18.3
Free Throws Attempted 19.1 25.1
Free Throw % 67.4% 72.7%
Ball Control NIU BGSU
Rebounds 35.2 38.1
Rebounds - Defensive 27.0 26.3
Rebounds - Offensive 8.2 11.8
Turnovers 11.0 8.9
Blocked Shots 5.1 2.2
Steals 4.0 6.1
Fouls 15.8 16.1

Playing Style Advantage: N Illinois

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NIU BGSU
Total Possessions 72.1
Effective Scoring Chances 69.3 75.0
% of Possessions with NIU BGSU
2 Point Attempt 45.2% 46.8%
3 Point Attempt 25.5% 23.5%
Player Fouled 22.3% 21.9%
Turnover 15.3% 12.3%
Opponent Steal 8.5% 5.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken NIU BGSU
Shot Blocked 3.8% 8.9%
Offensive Rebound 23.8% 30.4%