NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NIU DAY
Points 62.6 83.0
Total Points   145.6
Points From 2-Pointers 30.9 34.0
Points From 3-Pointers 22.3 31.5
Points From Free Throws 9.4 17.5
Shooting NIU DAY
Field Goals Made 22.9 27.5
Field Goals Attempted 58.0 55.3
Field Goal % 39.5% 49.7%
2 Pointers Made 15.5 17.0
2 Pointers Attempted 33.3 31.4
2 Point Shooting % 46.5% 54.2%
3 Pointers Made 7.4 10.5
3 Pointers Attempted 24.8 24.0
3 Point Shooting % 30.0% 43.8%
Free Throws Made 9.4 17.5
Free Throws Attempted 14.0 23.4
Free Throw % 67.4% 74.7%
Ball Control NIU DAY
Rebounds 31.4 37.0
Rebounds - Defensive 22.6 28.7
Rebounds - Offensive 8.8 8.4
Turnovers 10.7 8.1
Blocked Shots 4.0 2.9
Steals 3.6 5.8
Fouls 15.6 13.4

Playing Style Advantage: N Illinois

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NIU DAY
Total Possessions 68.6
Effective Scoring Chances 66.7 68.8
% of Possessions with NIU DAY
2 Point Attempt 42.3% 39.9%
3 Point Attempt 31.5% 30.5%
Player Fouled 19.5% 22.7%
Turnover 15.6% 11.9%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 5.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken NIU DAY
Shot Blocked 5.4% 6.9%
Offensive Rebound 23.5% 27.0%