NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NIU MARQ
Points 62.6 87.7
Total Points   150.3
Points From 2-Pointers 27.7 42.3
Points From 3-Pointers 23.5 30.9
Points From Free Throws 11.4 14.4
Shooting NIU MARQ
Field Goals Made 21.7 31.5
Field Goals Attempted 56.1 61.2
Field Goal % 38.6% 51.5%
2 Pointers Made 13.9 21.2
2 Pointers Attempted 31.3 35.9
2 Point Shooting % 44.3% 58.9%
3 Pointers Made 7.8 10.3
3 Pointers Attempted 24.9 25.3
3 Point Shooting % 31.5% 40.8%
Free Throws Made 11.4 14.4
Free Throws Attempted 16.9 20.9
Free Throw % 67.4% 68.8%
Ball Control NIU MARQ
Rebounds 33.3 37.4
Rebounds - Defensive 23.5 27.5
Rebounds - Offensive 9.8 9.8
Turnovers 14.3 7.9
Blocked Shots 3.5 3.5
Steals 3.7 8.4
Fouls 14.5 14.2

Playing Style Advantage: N Illinois

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NIU MARQ
Total Possessions 71.6
Effective Scoring Chances 67.1 73.5
% of Possessions with NIU MARQ
2 Point Attempt 37.8% 43.4%
3 Point Attempt 30.0% 30.5%
Player Fouled 19.9% 20.3%
Turnover 20.0% 11.1%
Opponent Steal 11.8% 5.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken NIU MARQ
Shot Blocked 5.7% 6.3%
Offensive Rebound 26.3% 29.5%