NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HCU TLSA
Points 67.3 86.7
Total Points   154.0
Points From 2-Pointers 37.5 48.4
Points From 3-Pointers 14.9 21.5
Points From Free Throws 14.9 16.7
Shooting HCU TLSA
Field Goals Made 23.7 31.4
Field Goals Attempted 58.2 60.2
Field Goal % 40.7% 52.2%
2 Pointers Made 18.7 24.2
2 Pointers Attempted 41.7 38.2
2 Point Shooting % 45.0% 63.4%
3 Pointers Made 5.0 7.2
3 Pointers Attempted 16.6 22.0
3 Point Shooting % 29.9% 32.7%
Free Throws Made 14.9 16.7
Free Throws Attempted 23.3 22.7
Free Throw % 64.1% 73.6%
Ball Control HCU TLSA
Rebounds 34.9 36.6
Rebounds - Defensive 24.2 28.4
Rebounds - Offensive 10.7 8.3
Turnovers 13.7 9.5
Blocked Shots 1.3 4.3
Steals 5.1 8.8
Fouls 14.8 15.6

Playing Style Advantage: Hsn Christian

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HCU TLSA
Total Possessions 75.6
Effective Scoring Chances 72.6 74.3
% of Possessions with HCU TLSA
2 Point Attempt 47.3% 45.3%
3 Point Attempt 18.8% 26.0%
Player Fouled 20.6% 19.6%
Turnover 18.1% 12.6%
Opponent Steal 11.6% 6.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken HCU TLSA
Shot Blocked 7.1% 2.3%
Offensive Rebound 27.5% 25.4%