NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HCU TCU
Points 63.0 98.8
Total Points   161.8
Points From 2-Pointers 36.6 61.3
Points From 3-Pointers 12.6 21.5
Points From Free Throws 13.8 16.1
Shooting HCU TCU
Field Goals Made 22.5 37.8
Field Goals Attempted 55.4 66.8
Field Goal % 40.7% 56.6%
2 Pointers Made 18.3 30.6
2 Pointers Attempted 41.0 48.7
2 Point Shooting % 44.7% 62.9%
3 Pointers Made 4.2 7.2
3 Pointers Attempted 14.4 18.1
3 Point Shooting % 29.1% 39.6%
Free Throws Made 13.8 16.1
Free Throws Attempted 21.5 22.1
Free Throw % 64.1% 72.7%
Ball Control HCU TCU
Rebounds 27.3 41.9
Rebounds - Defensive 18.6 28.0
Rebounds - Offensive 8.7 13.9
Turnovers 16.1 8.5
Blocked Shots 1.9 6.4
Steals 4.5 10.3
Fouls 13.7 15.2

Playing Style Advantage: TX Christian

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HCU TCU
Total Possessions 75.4
Effective Scoring Chances 68.0 80.8
% of Possessions with HCU TCU
2 Point Attempt 47.3% 54.0%
3 Point Attempt 16.6% 20.1%
Player Fouled 20.1% 18.2%
Turnover 21.3% 11.3%
Opponent Steal 13.7% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken HCU TCU
Shot Blocked 9.7% 3.5%
Offensive Rebound 23.6% 42.7%