NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NIU WASH
Points 70.6 87.7
Total Points   158.2
Points From 2-Pointers 33.7 43.7
Points From 3-Pointers 21.8 26.3
Points From Free Throws 15.1 17.7
Shooting NIU WASH
Field Goals Made 24.1 30.6
Field Goals Attempted 59.6 61.2
Field Goal % 40.4% 50.0%
2 Pointers Made 16.8 21.8
2 Pointers Attempted 37.2 39.3
2 Point Shooting % 45.3% 55.6%
3 Pointers Made 7.3 8.8
3 Pointers Attempted 22.4 22.0
3 Point Shooting % 32.4% 39.9%
Free Throws Made 15.1 17.7
Free Throws Attempted 22.4 24.8
Free Throw % 67.4% 71.5%
Ball Control NIU WASH
Rebounds 34.5 39.6
Rebounds - Defensive 24.7 29.8
Rebounds - Offensive 9.8 9.8
Turnovers 11.4 9.0
Blocked Shots 4.0 3.3
Steals 4.0 6.0
Fouls 17.5 17.1

Playing Style Advantage: N Illinois

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NIU WASH
Total Possessions 74.9
Effective Scoring Chances 73.3 75.8
% of Possessions with NIU WASH
2 Point Attempt 43.2% 45.5%
3 Point Attempt 26.1% 25.4%
Player Fouled 22.9% 23.3%
Turnover 15.2% 12.0%
Opponent Steal 8.1% 5.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken NIU WASH
Shot Blocked 5.4% 6.8%
Offensive Rebound 24.8% 28.5%