NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HCU TEX
Points 58.8 96.9
Total Points   155.7
Points From 2-Pointers 33.4 60.7
Points From 3-Pointers 12.2 22.2
Points From Free Throws 13.2 13.9
Shooting HCU TEX
Field Goals Made 20.8 37.8
Field Goals Attempted 56.5 64.2
Field Goal % 36.8% 58.9%
2 Pointers Made 16.7 30.4
2 Pointers Attempted 43.0 44.5
2 Point Shooting % 38.9% 68.3%
3 Pointers Made 4.1 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 13.5 19.7
3 Point Shooting % 30.2% 37.6%
Free Throws Made 13.2 13.9
Free Throws Attempted 20.6 18.1
Free Throw % 64.1% 76.5%
Ball Control HCU TEX
Rebounds 28.2 39.8
Rebounds - Defensive 18.7 29.7
Rebounds - Offensive 9.5 10.1
Turnovers 14.1 7.7
Blocked Shots 1.7 6.8
Steals 4.2 8.4
Fouls 13.0 14.9

Playing Style Advantage: Texas

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HCU TEX
Total Possessions 73.0
Effective Scoring Chances 68.4 75.4
% of Possessions with HCU TEX
2 Point Attempt 50.4% 53.1%
3 Point Attempt 15.9% 23.5%
Player Fouled 20.4% 17.8%
Turnover 19.3% 10.5%
Opponent Steal 11.4% 5.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken HCU TEX
Shot Blocked 10.7% 3.0%
Offensive Rebound 24.3% 35.1%