NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CONN TEX
Points 78.1 71.1
Total Points   149.2
Points From 2-Pointers 39.0 33.4
Points From 3-Pointers 23.1 15.6
Points From Free Throws 16.0 22.1
Shooting CONN TEX
Field Goals Made 27.2 21.9
Field Goals Attempted 55.4 51.8
Field Goal % 49.1% 42.3%
2 Pointers Made 19.5 16.7
2 Pointers Attempted 35.0 34.6
2 Point Shooting % 55.8% 48.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.7 5.2
3 Pointers Attempted 20.4 17.2
3 Point Shooting % 37.7% 30.3%
Free Throws Made 16.0 22.1
Free Throws Attempted 23.2 28.9
Free Throw % 69.0% 76.3%
Ball Control CONN TEX
Rebounds 31.9 34.1
Rebounds - Defensive 22.9 23.4
Rebounds - Offensive 9.0 10.6
Turnovers 8.8 10.8
Blocked Shots 4.5 2.2
Steals 5.9 4.7
Fouls 19.7 18.0

Playing Style Advantage: Texas

Expected Effect: +1.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CONN TEX
Total Possessions 69.4
Effective Scoring Chances 69.6 69.2
% of Possessions with CONN TEX
2 Point Attempt 44.1% 42.3%
3 Point Attempt 25.8% 21.1%
Player Fouled 26.0% 28.4%
Turnover 12.7% 15.6%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 8.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken CONN TEX
Shot Blocked 4.3% 8.2%
Offensive Rebound 27.7% 31.7%