NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CONN TEX
Points 75.7 71.3
Total Points   147.0
Points From 2-Pointers 34.7 34.0
Points From 3-Pointers 23.7 17.0
Points From Free Throws 17.3 20.3
Shooting CONN TEX
Field Goals Made 25.2 22.7
Field Goals Attempted 56.6 55.6
Field Goal % 44.5% 40.8%
2 Pointers Made 17.3 17.0
2 Pointers Attempted 33.9 39.8
2 Point Shooting % 51.1% 42.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.9 5.7
3 Pointers Attempted 22.7 15.8
3 Point Shooting % 34.7% 35.9%
Free Throws Made 17.3 20.3
Free Throws Attempted 22.3 26.8
Free Throw % 77.6% 75.8%
Ball Control CONN TEX
Rebounds 38.6 31.5
Rebounds - Defensive 27.0 22.4
Rebounds - Offensive 11.6 9.2
Turnovers 10.0 7.2
Blocked Shots 5.0 3.7
Steals 3.6 4.9
Fouls 18.3 15.9

Playing Style Advantage: UConn

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CONN TEX
Total Possessions 68.7
Effective Scoring Chances 70.4 70.7
% of Possessions with CONN TEX
2 Point Attempt 41.5% 49.8%
3 Point Attempt 27.8% 19.8%
Player Fouled 23.1% 26.7%
Turnover 14.5% 10.5%
Opponent Steal 7.1% 5.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken CONN TEX
Shot Blocked 6.9% 9.0%
Offensive Rebound 34.2% 25.4%