NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HCU RICE
Points 68.9 87.9
Total Points   156.8
Points From 2-Pointers 39.1 51.0
Points From 3-Pointers 18.4 24.5
Points From Free Throws 11.4 12.3
Shooting HCU RICE
Field Goals Made 25.7 33.7
Field Goals Attempted 61.8 63.6
Field Goal % 41.5% 53.0%
2 Pointers Made 19.5 25.5
2 Pointers Attempted 44.2 41.0
2 Point Shooting % 44.2% 62.2%
3 Pointers Made 6.1 8.2
3 Pointers Attempted 17.6 22.5
3 Point Shooting % 34.8% 36.3%
Free Throws Made 11.4 12.3
Free Throws Attempted 17.9 17.8
Free Throw % 64.1% 69.2%
Ball Control HCU RICE
Rebounds 33.5 38.8
Rebounds - Defensive 22.7 28.4
Rebounds - Offensive 10.8 10.4
Turnovers 11.2 8.5
Blocked Shots 2.1 5.5
Steals 5.2 6.5
Fouls 12.6 13.0

Playing Style Advantage: Rice

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HCU RICE
Total Possessions 72.7
Effective Scoring Chances 72.3 74.7
% of Possessions with HCU RICE
2 Point Attempt 51.6% 48.9%
3 Point Attempt 20.6% 26.8%
Player Fouled 17.9% 17.3%
Turnover 15.4% 11.6%
Opponent Steal 9.0% 7.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken HCU RICE
Shot Blocked 8.7% 3.5%
Offensive Rebound 27.5% 31.5%