NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NIU UNI
Points 66.5 77.4
Total Points   143.8
Points From 2-Pointers 31.1 35.6
Points From 3-Pointers 22.2 22.8
Points From Free Throws 13.2 18.9
Shooting NIU UNI
Field Goals Made 23.0 25.4
Field Goals Attempted 54.0 55.5
Field Goal % 42.5% 45.8%
2 Pointers Made 15.5 17.8
2 Pointers Attempted 31.4 35.1
2 Point Shooting % 49.4% 50.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.4 7.6
3 Pointers Attempted 22.6 20.4
3 Point Shooting % 32.8% 37.2%
Free Throws Made 13.2 18.9
Free Throws Attempted 19.5 26.7
Free Throw % 67.4% 70.8%
Ball Control NIU UNI
Rebounds 33.5 35.7
Rebounds - Defensive 25.8 27.1
Rebounds - Offensive 7.7 8.6
Turnovers 11.9 8.0
Blocked Shots 4.1 2.2
Steals 3.9 6.7
Fouls 17.0 17.0

Playing Style Advantage: N Illinois

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NIU UNI
Total Possessions 70.4
Effective Scoring Chances 66.2 71.0
% of Possessions with NIU UNI
2 Point Attempt 39.8% 43.5%
3 Point Attempt 28.6% 25.3%
Player Fouled 24.2% 24.2%
Turnover 16.8% 11.4%
Opponent Steal 9.5% 5.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken NIU UNI
Shot Blocked 4.1% 7.7%
Offensive Rebound 22.0% 25.0%